End of Day Summary (17). The number of registered cases in Germany has increased today by 5,888, with a growth rate identical to that of the last 3 days (×1.5 per 3 days). The number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of cases, but with a growth rate than yesterday, ×1.6 instead of ×1.7 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 5th death, which means that the reality corresponds exactly with the projection.
The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statistical prediction (gray), but the growth rate did not change. Today’s news announced that about 1200 patients are in intensive care in Germany. There are currently 5,000 ICUs available, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 registered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution.
The number of deaths is still rising dynamically, but today the growth rate reduced by 0.1 point from ×1.7 to ×1.6.
Author’s note: The above values are purely speculative estimations using simple mathematical modelling (based on registered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health authorities nor any other national public authority.