[Preliminary remark: I am currently working on a statistic for the Covid-19 situation in the USA, which has worsened dramatically in the last three days. Why this is so, I hope to be able to answer on Sunday morning.]
End of Day Summary (18). The number of registered cases in Germany has increased today by 5,809, unfortunately with an unchanged high growth rate for 5 days: ×1.5 per 3 days. The number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of cases, but with a lower growth rate than yesterday, ×1.5 instead of ×1.6 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 8th death, which means that the reality corresponds exactly with the projection.
The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statistical prediction (gray), but the growth rate did not change. Today’s news announced that about 1200 patients are in intensive care in Germany. There are currently 6,000 ICUs available, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 registered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution. Some hospitals are already overloaded.
The number of deaths is still rising dynamically, the growth is unchanged: ×1.6.
Author’s note: The above values are purely speculative estimations using simple mathematical modelling (based on registered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health authorities nor any other national public authority.