Daily Covid-19 Stats Nº 18

Today’s coro­na­virus spreadsheet: regis­tered Cases and Deaths in Germany and Berlin today

[Preliminary remark: I am curr­ently working on a statistic for the Covid-19 situa­tion in the USA, which has worsened drama­ti­cally in the last three days. Why this is so, I hope to be able to answer on Sunday morning.]

End of Day Summary (18). The number of regis­tered cases in Germany has increased today by 5,809, unfor­tu­n­a­tely with an unch­anged high growth rate for 5 days: ×1.5 per 3 days. The number of deaths is increa­sing faster than the number of cases, but with a lower growth rate than yesterday, ×1.5 instead of ×1.6 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 8th death, which means that the reality corre­sponds exactly with the projec­tion.

Today’s coro­na­virus curves for Germany, predicted cases vs. confirmed cases, March 27, 2020

The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statis­tical predic­tion (gray), but the growth rate did not change. Today’s news announced that about 1200 pati­ents are in inten­sive care in Germany. There are curr­ently 6,000 ICUs avail­able, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 regis­tered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution. Some hospi­tals are already over­loaded.

Today’s coro­na­virus curves for Germany, predicted deaths vs. confirmed deaths, March 27, 2020

The number of deaths is still rising dyna­mi­cally, the growth is unch­anged: ×1.6.

Author’s note: The above values are purely specu­la­tive esti­ma­tions using simple mathe­ma­tical model­ling (based on regis­tered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health autho­ri­ties nor any other national public autho­rity.


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