End of Day Summary (20). Today, the number of registered cases in Germany has risen by 1,834, and thus the development has slowed down considerably, which is also reflected in the lower growth rate: after 6 days with ×1.5 and yesterday with ×1.4 we are down to ×1.3 – the lowest growth rate in over 4 weeks. In view of the fact that the amount of testing has increased significantly in recent days, this could perhaps already be seen as a clear reaction to the social distancing measures.
The increase in the number of deaths has also slowed today, to ×1.4, after having been ×1.5 in each of the last two days, due to the dramatic deaths in 2 nursing homes in northern Germany. The Berlin figures follow the national trend, even a tenth more encouraging: ×1.2 (registered cases) and ×1.4 (registered deaths).
The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is by far flatter than the statistical prediction (gray), with a growth rate of ×1.3.
The number of deaths is still rising dynamically, bur the growth lowered a bit, from ×1.5 to ×1.4
Author’s note: The above values are purely speculative estimations using simple mathematical modelling (based on registered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health authorities nor any other national public authority.