Daily Covid-19 Stats Nº 20

Today’s coro­na­virus spreads­heet: regis­tered Cases and Deaths in Germany and Berlin today

End of Day Summary (20). Today, the number of regis­tered cases in Germany has risen by 1,834, and thus the deve­lo­p­ment has slowed down consi­der­ably, which is also reflected in the lower growth rate: after 6 days with ×1.5 and yesterday with ×1.4 we are down to ×1.3 – the lowest growth rate in over 4 weeks. In view of the fact that the amount of testing has incre­ased signi­fi­cantly in recent days, this could perhaps already be seen as a clear reac­tion to the social distancing measures.

The increase in the number of deaths has also slowed today, to ×1.4, after having been ×1.5 in each of the last two days, due to the dramatic deaths in 2 nursing homes in nort­hern Germany. The Berlin figures follow the national trend, even a tenth more encou­ra­ging: ×1.2 (regis­tered cases) and ×1.4 (regis­tered deaths).

Today’s coro­na­virus curves for Germany, predicted cases vs. confirmed cases, March 30, 2020

The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is by far flatter than the statis­tical predic­tion (gray), with a growth rate of ×1.3.

Today’s coro­na­virus curves for Germany, predicted deaths vs. confirmed deaths, March 30, 2020

The number of deaths is still rising dyna­mi­cally, bur the growth lowered a bit, from ×1.5 to ×1.4

Author’s note: The above values are purely specu­la­tive esti­ma­tions using simple mathe­ma­tical model­ling (based on regis­tered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health autho­ri­ties nor any other national public autho­rity.