[Preliminary remark: I am currently working on a statistic for the Covid-19 situation in the USA, which has worsened dramatically in the last four days. Why this is so, I hope to be able to answer on Sunday morning.]
End of Day Summary (19). Angela Merkel announced today in an audio podcast for the first time when the reduction of precautionary measures could begin: If it is foreseeable that the number of registered cases will double in 10 days; currently the number doubles in 5 days (e.g.: yesterday, 27 March 49k, 22 March 25k).
Today the number of registered cases in Germany has increased by 7,163, unfortunately with an unchanged high growth rate for 5 days: ×1.5 per 3 days. The number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of cases, but with a lower growth rate than yesterday, ×1.5 instead of ×1.6 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 9th death and 200 new cases. The values have flattened out, but this is rather due to the fact that the authorities have delayed reporting over the weekend.
The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statistical prediction (gray), but the growth rate did not change. Today’s news announced that about 1200 patients are in intensive care in Germany. There are currently 6,000 ICUs available, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 registered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution. Some hospitals are already overloaded.
The number of deaths is still rising dynamically, the growth lowered a bit, from ×1.6 to ×1.5
Author’s note: The above values are purely speculative estimations using simple mathematical modelling (based on registered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health authorities nor any other national public authority.