Daily Covid-19 Stats Nº 19

Today’s coro­na­virus spreadsheet: regis­tered Cases and Deaths in Germany and Berlin

[Preliminary remark: I am curr­ently working on a statistic for the Covid-19 situa­tion in the USA, which has worsened drama­ti­cally in the last four days. Why this is so, I hope to be able to answer on Sunday morning.]

End of Day Summary (19). Angela Merkel announced today in an audio podcast for the first time when the reduc­tion of precau­tio­nary measures could begin: If it is fore­seeable that the number of regis­tered cases will double in 10 days; curr­ently the number doubles in 5 days (e.g.: yesterday, 27 March 49k, 22 March 25k).

Today the number of regis­tered cases in Germany has increased by 7,163, unfort­u­na­tely with an unch­anged high growth rate for 5 days: ×1.5 per 3 days. The number of deaths is incre­asing faster than the number of cases, but with a lower growth rate than yesterday, ×1.5 instead of ×1.6 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 9th death and 200 new cases. The values have flat­tened out, but this is rather due to the fact that the autho­ri­ties have delayed reporting over the weekend.

Today’s coro­na­virus curves for Germany, predicted cases vs. confirmed cases, March 28, 2020

The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statis­tical predic­tion (gray), but the growth rate did not change. Today’s news announced that about 1200 pati­ents are in inten­sive care in Germany. There are curr­ently 6,000 ICUs available, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 regis­tered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution. Some hospi­tals are already overloaded.

Today’s coro­na­virus curves for Germany, predicted deaths vs. confirmed deaths, March 28, 2020

The number of deaths is still rising dyna­mi­cally, the growth lowered a bit, from ×1.6 to ×1.5

Author’s note: The above values are purely specu­la­tive esti­ma­tions using simple mathe­ma­tical model­ling (based on regis­tered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health autho­ri­ties nor any other national public authority.