End of Day Summary (16). The number of registered cases in Germany has increased today by 4,332, with a growth rate identical to that of the last 2 days (×1.5 per 3 days). The number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of cases, with a growth rate of ×1.7 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 4 deaths, which means that the reality corresponds exactly with the projection.
The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statistical prediction (gray) and the growth rate did not change compared to yesterday. Today’s news announced that about 1000 patients are in intensive care in Germany. There are currently 4,500 ICUs available, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 registered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution.
The number of deaths is becoming more dynamic. It may not double in two days, but it grows ×1.7, just like yesterday.
Author’s note: The above values are purely speculative estimations using simple mathematical modelling (based on registered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health authorities nor any other national public authority.